The average value of retail digital payments dropped 48 per cent from Rs 8,769 in March 2021 to Rs 4,560 in March 2024 due to a growing preference to use digital modes of transactions for small value payments, according to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) report on the trend and progress of banking in India.
The Indian economy will grow at around 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal, notwithstanding high crude oil prices and increased uncertainty due climate changes, NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani said on Thursday. Virmani also asserted that the gross household savings ratio in India has consistently gone up. In an interview with PTI, he said: "My growth projection (of India's GDP growth) is 6.5 per cent plus minus 0.5 per cent... because my experience is that the fluctuations in global GDP more or less has balanced out for us, assuming normal changes."
State Bank of India chairman Dinesh Kumar Khara has pitched for tax relief on interest income, saying it would help banks to garner savings that could be used for funding long-term infra projects. Currently, banks are required to deduct tax when interest income from deposits held in all the bank branches put together is more than Rs 40,000 in a year. With regard to savings accounts, interest earned up to Rs 10,000 is exempt from tax.
India needs another shot of difficult reform, of the kind only possible at gunpoint. Mr Trump holds that gun to our heads now. A drastic reduction in tariff protection, other elements of sarkari wet-nursing will force entrepreneurial India to become competitive again, argues Shekhar Gupta.
Budget 2025 lays down a transformational roadmap for India's digital and economic future, focusing on AI-driven enterprise modernisation, workforce skilling, and sustainable innovation. With bold investments in AI, digital infrastructure, and ease of doing business, the government has set the stage for businesses to scale, innovate and compete on a global level.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Zomato surged over 7 per cent. Maruti, ITC Hotels, ITC, Mahindra & Mahindra, Asian Paints, Titan and IndusInd Bank were among the biggest gainers. Power Grid, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC, UltraTech Cement, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, Infosys and Adani Ports were among the laggards.
'Investors should consider small and midcaps only if they can handle volatility and have a longer investment horizon.'
India, along with Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, is expected to sustain growth in the medium-term in Asia region, replacing China as the key growth driver, Morgan Stanley and Nomura said in two separate reports released on Monday. While Morgan Stanley projected a 6.2 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for India in FY24, Nomura estimated the Indian economy to grow at 5.9 per cent in 2023. "Even with a slowing China, we expect GDP growth in Asia to sustainably outperform other emerging markets and the US. India and Southeast Asia are set to be the fastest-growing economies this decade.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday announced six new schemes and increased the subsidised Kisan Credit Card (KCC) loan limit to Rs 7 lakh from Rs 5 lakh, targeting everything from unemployment to crop productivity enhancement across the country. Presenting her eighth budget speech in Parliament, Sitharaman positioned agriculture as "the first engine of growth" and unveiled the Prime Minister Dhan-Dhaanya Krishi Yojana, a flagship program targeting 100 agri-districts grappling with low productivity, moderate crop intensity, and below-average credit parameters.
The earliest that credit demand will revive is 2010-11, and this year's growth is unlikely to be more than 12-14 per cent, says Rahul Chhaparwal.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday opted for a pause second time in a row, maintaining key benchmark policy rate at 6.5 per cent as inflation moderates. The rate increase cycle was paused in April after six consecutive rate hikes aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to keep the rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent.
The Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India's (Irdai's) decision to allow insurers to hedge risks through equity derivatives will help them manage market volatility and protect policyholder returns. However, this move is unlikely to alter their investment strategies.
'Don't play the American game... India is too big for a US game.'
Against the targets, which were upwards of 25 per cent for players such as State Bank of India and Union Bank, these banks are showing sub-20 per cent growth. Now, SBI is willing to settle for up to 18 per cent credit growth by March-end, while Union Bank Chairman and Managing Director MV Nair said that overall bank credit was expected to grow at around 15 per cent.
Axar also patted fellow spinner Varun Chakravarthy (5/42) for coming up with a match-winning spell.
'It's advisable not to go overboard on a banking sector fund or any other sector fund.'
'If all goes well, we may well hit or even surpass the forecast growth rate.'
Public sector banks (PSBs) posted 16.1 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in net profit at Rs 39,974 crore during the June 2024 quarter. While net interest income (NII) showed subdued growth of 7.1 per cent, provisions and contingencies declined by 10.5 per cent Y-o-Y. This aided the bottom line to show steady growth.
The RBI is fully aware that the high-cost loans and high indebtedness of the borrowers could pose financial stability risks, if not addressed by these NBFCs. Governor Shaktikanta Das has issued a stern warning, saying the RBI is closely monitoring these areas and will not hesitate to take appropriate action, if necessary, if the culprits don't opt for self-correction. Watch out for some action, soon, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Commercial banks were on Tuesday asked to improve credit quality by undertaking a segment-wise analysis and take steps to expand in those areas where credit demand is growing rapidly.
Net NPAs increased to Rs 36,260 crore in the December quarter from Rs 34,843 crore in September and Rs 33,116 crore in December 2023, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Public sector banks (PSBs) have delivered significant outperformance over the past three years and the sector has been re-rated. Given the growth and profitability expectations of an 18 per cent return on equity (RoE) over FY24-26, there is still a case for buying at the current levels. While the net interest margins or NIMs may remain range-bound or have a downward bias, there's optimism about possibly better opex ratios and lower non-performing assets (NPAs), plus scope for further credit cost reduction, and healthy treasury performances as interest rates trend down.
'It's really creditable to these guys who said, "You can do what you want. We are not going to replace her".'
US investment banker JP Morgan has given 'overweight' rating on four Adani group bonds, comforted by ability to scale and grow using internal cash flows which reduces the scope for credit stress. In a report, JP Morgan gave 'overweight' rating on three bond issues of Adani Ports & SEZ and one by Adani Electricity Mumbai Ltd (a subsidiary of Adani Energy Solutions Ltd). It has taken neutral stand on other five Adani bonds and is underweight on one bond issued by Adani Green Energy Ltd.
RBI cuts GDP growth projection to 6.6 per cent for current financial year, from earlier forecast of 7.2 per cent.
Automobile retail sales grew 9 per cent year on year in 2024 riding on the back of robust demand for two-wheelers and passenger vehicles amid challenging business environment, dealers' body FADA said on Tuesday. Overall vehicle registrations stood at 2,61,07,679 units last year as compared to 2,39,28,293 units in the 2023 calendar year, recording a growth of 9 per cent.
Once you adjust the credit growth data for seasonality, it shows an upturn that corresponds with a similar trend in industrial production, says Renu Kohli.
'The Indian economy and the Indian financial sector today remain resilient and much better placed.'
State Bank of India (SBI), India's largest lender, is looking to raise Rs 10,000 crore through 15-year infrastructure bonds as early as next week, said multiple sources aware of the development. Market participants expect a coupon in the range of 7.15-7.18 per cent for SBI's upcoming infrastructure bond issuance. This comes as demand for longer-tenor papers has remained strong in recent domestic capital market offerings.
Despite rising interest rates, and high inflation, the banking sector is doing well, on the back of a recovering economy. The last couple of quarters indicate credit demand is picking up and Return on Assets (RoA) is more than acceptable at the moment. The PSU bank pack may be more interesting at the moment simply due to being valued at far lower multiples than the private banks.
'We may see little softness in liquidity position after the stabilisation of the government.'
RBI's interest rate decision, quarterly earnings and global cues would be the major driving factors for equity markets this week, analysts said adding that the impact of the Union Budget could linger on this week. Trading activity of foreign investors will also be a key driver for the markets, experts noted. "US and India's manufacturing PMI for January to be released on Monday, will be the key macro data to watch out for.
"The new structure will substantially reduce taxes on the middle class and leave more money in their hands, boosting household consumption, savings and investment," Sitharaman said presenting what was dubbed as 'reformist' budget for the next fiscal in Lok Sabha.
In addition to interest rates, review the fine print for penalties and repayment terms, and select a reputable lender to avoid harsh recovery practices.
The FMCG industry hopes for a revival in consumption growth in 2025 with some 'green shoots' already visible, after having a challenging year amid escalating input costs and a double-digit rise in food inflation, which ultimately slowed down the pace of the urban market growth in the second half of 2024. Soaring prices of commodities such as palm oil, coffee, cocoa and wheat forced FMCG players to go for a hike of 3 to 5 per cent or resort to shrinkflation by reducing pack sizes and grammage to retain attractive price points, fearing a volume loss.
'Binary fission will happen -- startups will lead to more startups.'
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has lauded the Union Budget as a "people's budget" that fulfills the dreams of every Indian and said that it is a "force-multiplier" that will boost consumption, investment and growth. He highlighted a host of measures for different sectors, including welfare initiatives for gig workers, tax relief for the middle class, and support for the manufacturing sector.
The Indian economy is likely to post better than anticipated growth in the second quarter (July-September) owing to robust urban consumption and expansion in services, a Business Standard analysis of high-frequency indicators showed. While gross domestic product growth in the September quarter is expected to come below the 7.8 per cent print in the June quarter due to a favourable base fading, analysts say the print will be much closer to 7 per cent than the 6.5 per cent anticipated earlier. While the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had estimated 6.5 per cent growth for July-September, last month Governor Shaktikanta Das said the growth figure would surprise on the upside.
'Asset allocation should be driven much more by long-term factors rather than the market scenario at any particular point in time.'
Credit card spending dropped 11 per cent sequentially in November at Rs 1.15 trillion, but topped Rs 1 trillion for the ninth month straight, data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed as the festive season ends and consumption activity slows down. Year-on-year (YoY), spending was up 29 per cent. Card spends have consistently topped the Rs 1 trillion mark, led by the rising share of e-commerce transactions.
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