rediffGURU and financial planning expert Colonel Sanjeev Govila (retd) answers your personal finance-related questions.
This will be the first full-year Budget of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance government since it came to power for a third consecutive term in July last year.
The Indian economy is likely to post better than anticipated growth in the second quarter (July-September) owing to robust urban consumption and expansion in services, a Business Standard analysis of high-frequency indicators showed. While gross domestic product growth in the September quarter is expected to come below the 7.8 per cent print in the June quarter due to a favourable base fading, analysts say the print will be much closer to 7 per cent than the 6.5 per cent anticipated earlier. While the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had estimated 6.5 per cent growth for July-September, last month Governor Shaktikanta Das said the growth figure would surprise on the upside.
Cholamandalam Investment and Finance's (Chola) share has yielded one of the best returns in the last month. The company has sustained assets under management (AUM) growth at 7 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q), and 35 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in Q1FY25. Scaling up of new businesses now contributes to 13 per cent of loans (vs 10 per cent in Q1FY24).
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'The Indian economy and the Indian financial sector today remain resilient and much better placed.'
Despite rising interest rates, and high inflation, the banking sector is doing well, on the back of a recovering economy. The last couple of quarters indicate credit demand is picking up and Return on Assets (RoA) is more than acceptable at the moment. The PSU bank pack may be more interesting at the moment simply due to being valued at far lower multiples than the private banks.
Roughly 40% of this projected outlay is expected to go towards emerging industries, including green hydrogen, clean energy, semiconductors, and electric vehicles.
Mitchell Starc said Australia had left the Perth debacle behind by shutting the "outside noise" following their heavy defeat in the series-opener.
The earliest that credit demand will revive is 2010-11, and this year's growth is unlikely to be more than 12-14 per cent, says Rahul Chhaparwal.
Credit card spending dropped 11 per cent sequentially in November at Rs 1.15 trillion, but topped Rs 1 trillion for the ninth month straight, data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed as the festive season ends and consumption activity slows down. Year-on-year (YoY), spending was up 29 per cent. Card spends have consistently topped the Rs 1 trillion mark, led by the rising share of e-commerce transactions.
SBI Cards and Payment Services reported numbers that met Street expectations in the first quarter of the 2023-24 financial year (Q1FY24). The net profit came in at Rs 590 crore, while pre-provision operating profit grew 17 per cent year-on-year (YoY) (a little better than expectations). But provisions were hiked due to surprise stress from pre-Covid-19 period of 2018-19, and that dragged earnings.
'We will see a lot of investments from the private sector.' 'As long as we are not impacted by some global events, I think we will be in a strong place.'
Against the targets, which were upwards of 25 per cent for players such as State Bank of India and Union Bank, these banks are showing sub-20 per cent growth. Now, SBI is willing to settle for up to 18 per cent credit growth by March-end, while Union Bank Chairman and Managing Director MV Nair said that overall bank credit was expected to grow at around 15 per cent.
Following are the highlights of the Economic Survey 2022-23 tabled in Parliament on Tuesday
'In addition, we have geopolitics and politics and all the other things that will affect commodity prices.'
Commercial banks were on Tuesday asked to improve credit quality by undertaking a segment-wise analysis and take steps to expand in those areas where credit demand is growing rapidly.
The share of low-cost money in total deposits continued to take a knock at the close of FY23 as banks engaged in intense competition by offering higher interest rates on term money to garner funds amid tight liquidity conditions. The share of current accounts and saving accounts (CASA) in total deposits declined by 2-4 per cent by end of March 2023 from March 2022 figure, according to BSE filings by private banks. The ease of movement of funds on digital platforms and the deployment of money by businesses from current accounts also played a role in dwindling the share of CASA money.
Once you adjust the credit growth data for seasonality, it shows an upturn that corresponds with a similar trend in industrial production, says Renu Kohli.
'If the BJP detoxifies the nuclear liability law, it will bring economic, environmental and, most of all, strategic benefits.' 'Let's keep our fingers crossed and hope that this Budget promise is met soon -- ideally, before Mr Modi heads to his first meeting with Trump 2.0,' observes Shekhar Gupta.
India will drive growth in the Asia-Pacific (Apac) region as the growth engine is likely to shift from China to South and Southeast Asia in the coming years, S&P Global Ratings said in a report on Tuesday. The rating agency's report projected China's growth to slow down to 4.6 per cent by 2026 from an estimated 5.4 per cent in 2023. India is likely to clock 7 per cent economic growth from 6.4 per cent estimated for 2023.
The asset quality of microfinance portfolios worsened in the quarter ending June 2024 due to the impact of heatwaves on borrowers' incomes and collections, coupled with rumours of loan waivers, according to Sa-Dhan. Jiji Mammen, executive director and chief executive officer of Sa-Dhan, said loans with 90+ days past due (dpd) rose to 1.2 per cent in June 2024, compared to 0.9 per cent in June 2023. The 90+ dpd also increased from 1.16 per cent in March 2024.
The narrative on China is changing post the recent stimulus measures, and it will be hard for global investors to ignore the Chinese markets.
'The dakiyas will be our partners, receiving credit proposals from micro-enterprises at the grassroots level.'
The growth in personal loans for fintech major Paytm may remain muted in the future and not replicate a three-digit year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth that it recorded in the previous years, a person familiar with the matter said. Sources said the personal loans book may grow in the range of 30 to 40 per cent Y-o-Y on its current base. On a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis, the number of personal loans the Noida-based fintech company disbursed has dropped 20 per cent from 0.3 million in the first quarter of this financial year (Q1FY24) to 0.24 million in Q2FY24, according to regulatory filings.
At a time when the government is nudging the private sector to ramp up its capital expenditure (capex), the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is poised to kick-start the first-of-its-kind annual survey on the status of private sector capex from next month. "The inaugural edition of the annual exercise will start in October and will be completed by December. "The results will be made public by February next year," said Geeta Singh Rathore, director general, National Sample Survey Office (NSSO), at a data users' conference on Thursday.
Global brokerage firm CLSA has reversed its early tactical shift from Indian equities to Chinese stocks, and has decided to raise India allocation while cutting exposure to China. In its report titled 'Pouncing Tiger, Prevaricating Dragon', CLSA cited challenges facing Chinese markets in the aftermath of Donald Trump's victory in the US elections as the reason for the move. "Misfortune can happen in threes. So it has played out for Chinese equities over the past week.
'Women' as a political constituency appears to be an idea that has come of age. It is changing India in ways that we only dimly understand, asserts Aditi Phadnis.
Most members of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee (MPC) decided to stick to the course on bringing retail inflation to the target of 4 per cent while voting for maintaining status quo in the April review, except external member Jayanth Varma who voted for a 25 bps cut in the repo rate. "I believe that the extant monetary policy setting is well positioned," RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said in the minutes of the policy review, which came out on Friday. "Monetary policy transmission is continuing and inflation expectations of households are also getting further anchored.
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday expressed hope that the economy will maintain the trend growth rate of 6.5 per cent and above for the rest of the years in the current decade. The economy will close the current fiscal logging in a growth of 6.5-7 per cent, he said, citing the projections of private sector analysts, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and international agencies like OECD and the IMF. "This appears to be reasonable at this point in time although we will get the data on the fiscal second quarter in a few days, which will give more clarity on these numbers.
Harleen Deol underscored her growing maturity with an impressive maiden hundred
Enthused by higher than expected GDP numbers in the fourth quarter of 2022-23, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran on Wednesday said India's economic growth may exceed the initial estimate of 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal and the country can look for another year of solid economic performance.
Alternative investment funds (AIFs) - investment vehicles favoured by the affluent - have topped $50 billion (Rs 4.3 trillion) in total investments for the first time during the April-June quarter, according to the latest data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India. The industry's commitments have approached Rs 12 trillion ($140 billion), marking a 40 per cent increase over the past year. The amount raised and deployed stood at Rs 4.74 trillion ($56 billion) and Rs 4.32 trillion ($51 billion), respectively, the data shows.
'We are confident that over the next few years the government will strike a fine balance between populist measures and growth, and manage coalition partners well.'
Treasury gains helped ICICI Bank post a nearly 10 per cent increase in the consolidated net profit for the April-June quarter at Rs 11,696 crore on Saturday. Growth in the core income slowed for the country's second largest private sector lender, but the treasury operations helped it report a 14.62 per cent rise in its post-tax profit at Rs 11,059 crore on a standalone basis. The core net interest income (NII) growth came at a multi quarter low of 7.3 per cent to Rs 19,553 crore for the reporting quarter.
In her Budget 2023-24 presentation, she also said the Centre will launch the 'Dekho Apna Desh' initiative to promote domestic tourism.
Indian growth in the rest of this fiscal year and next will be propelled by robust domestic consumption as consumer confidence improves, and by investment, including large increases in government capital expenditure, according to the Asian Development Outlook September 2023. "As slowing exports could foment headwinds for the economy, and erratic rainfall patterns are likely to undermine agricultural output, the growth forecast for FY2023 is revised down marginally to 6.3 per cent," ADB said.
Investors should view any bounce-back in bank stocks as an opportunity to exit the pack, analysts suggested, as the worst may not be over yet. The recent quarterly results of HDFC Bank and Axis Bank disappointed the Street, triggering a marketwide selloff by foreign institutional investors, especially in banking counters. While HDFC Bank, which was the anchor for the market correction during the past week, ended 2 per cent higher amid short covering on Wednesday, Axis Bank's shares settled 3 per cent lower.
The affordable housing segment may be seeing an uptick which is a good sign of consumption momentum. This is the biggest-ticket purchase for middle income and lower income families. The current activity is at least partly driven by a pause in interest rate hikes.
'Banks may find small ticket size lending economically unviable due to the cost of branch operations.'
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